Next Big Future - 2 new articles

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Date: Thu, Jan 3, 2013 at 4:06 PM
Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles

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"Next Big Future" - 2 new articles

1. Google Now will provide a visual boost to productivity
2. Future capabilities and expectations need to be qualified with key metrics and prices
3. More Recent Articles
4. Search Next Big Future
5. Prior Mailing Archive

Google Now will provide a visual boost to productivity IEEE Spectrum has an interview with the leader of the Google Glass project. The main points: * Developers will be the main ones usjng Google Glass in 2013 * They are looking to boost visual productivity and utility * One of the main things will be Google Now which will suggest useful information (pushing useful info that it expects you will want) Read more » • Email to a friend • Future capabilities and expectations need to be qualified with key metrics and prices Jamais Cascio had a piece from early in 2012 about how the major components of "visions" of the technological future have not changed. The items on the list are - Molecular nanotechnology Artificial intelligence and robots galore 3D printers Augmented reality Ultra-high speed mobile networks Synthetic biology Life extension Space colonies The problem is that there is no key metrics qualified, amounts or ranges, prices or adoption levels to this list. You could have human flight on this list and you could say that has not changed for centuries, even after lighter than air human travel started in 1783 and heavier than air travel started in 1903. Is there any difference between the 12 second flight in 1903 with some of the later developments ? Of course there is. Metrics and capabilities matter. Ultra-high speed mobile network over the last 20 years has gone from tens of kilobits per second to tens of megabits per second on some mobile networks (mainly in asia and europe). Speeds for some high cost mobile links can get to tens of gbps now. There will be multi terabit per second links in the 20-50 year timeframe (2032-2062) that was mentioned in the Cascio article. The original date range of consideration is quite wide and was not anchored to specific dates. When Cascio discussed the lack of change over the last 20 years then whoever was predicting in 1992 for 20-50 years then would need to true up the predictions against what happened in the 20 years. 1 gigabit per second (peak) from LTE advanced is starting to be deployed in 2013 and there is multi-gigabit per second wifi (802.11ac and 802.11ad) being deployed and will enable millions of hotspots to offload some data traffic. (2 million hotspots in 2012 and 4 million in 2014). There is also a twist dimension encoding that will enable wireless transmission speeds to go to multi-terabit speeds. Petabit speeds will be enabled over the ten years for optical network fiber backbones. Molecular nanotechnology - we have DNA origami and DNA nanotechnology but mainly in the lab Artificial intelligence and robots galore - there is commercialization of voice recognition (SIRI and Google Voice) and IBM is commercializing Watson. 3D printers - Additive manufacturing is a multi-billion dollar business Augmented reality - There has been a very modest amount of commercialization of augmented reality but it appear set to pick up speed with Google Glass. Ultra-high speed mobile networks - We have some 4G deployments Synthetic biology - There has already been commercialization of synthetic biology for fuels, drugs, cosmetics, materials and other applications. Life extension - Over 20 years, life expectancy increased by about 4 to 5 years. Space colonies - There were no space colonies established over the last 20 years. There is some progress in cost reduction for launches. Read more » • Email to a friend • Article Search • More Recent Articles 55 inch OLED TV for about US$10,000 High speed wireless technologies from tens of gigabits per second to terabits per second 802.11ac for up to 3.6 gbps and 802.11ad for up to 7 Gbps and wireless replacement of HDMI, USB and PCI-e Advanced LTE deployments in 2013 and 2014 Carnival of Nuclear Energy 137

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